"Superbugs" that have become resistant to medications intended to treat them will kill more than 39 million people by 2050, an increase of almost 70% compared to rates from two years ago, a new study projects.
The study, published in The Lancet with contributions from more than 500 researchers, is billed as the first in-depth analysis of antimicrobial resistance trends over time and builds upon previous research highlighting the threat its global rise poses to world health if infection prevention, antibiotic invention and access to care are not improved.
Antimicrobial resistance, or AMR, occurs when bacterial infections become resistant to the drug intended to treat them. These "superbugs" can lead to higher rates of death due to the inability to treat the germ with the first choice of medication.
Using data from 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, the study found that more than 1 million people died from AMR annually. While deaths among children under 5 due to AMR decreased by 50%, which researchers attribute to vaccination and hygiene infrastructure investments, AMR death rates increased by more than 80% for those 70 and older in the same period — and researchers say this trend will continue.
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By 2050, the study forecasts that deaths attributable to AMR will increase by 67.5% to 1.9 million people annually. Plus, the annual number of deaths associated with or worsened by AMR will increase roughly 75% to 8.2 million people, up from 4.7 million in 2021, the study shows.
The superbug researchers found to contribute the most to AMR-related burdens was meticillin-resistant S aureus, or MRSA, doubling from 57,200 attributable deaths in 1990 to 130,000 in 2021. This infection is caused by a form of staph bacteria that's become resistant to many antibiotics used to treat other staph infections.
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The World Health Organization calls antimicrobial medicines the "cornerstone of modern medicine." But AMR's emergence has made it one of the "top global public health and development threats," affecting all countries and all residents but exacerbated by poverty and inequality.
Regions that will be most affected by AMR in years to come will be South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. However, sub-Saharan Africa is also among those already seeing some of the highest burdens of AMR, suggesting an urgent need for resources and measures to protect infection care.
AMR can impact the global health industry's ability to perform life-saving procedures — including chemotherapy, organ transplants and cesarean sections — as well as impact the health of animals and plants, reducing farm productivity and threatening food security, the WHO says. This can also increase costs in economics, as prolonged illness can harm productivity.
Without additional measures in place to slow medicine resistance, the study says that deaths attributable and associated with AMR will continue to climb. However, if improvements are put in place, researchers project 92 million lives could be saved globally from 2025 to 2050.
Researchers suggest steps to lessen the threat: Documenting AMR evolution and trends, enhancing infection prevention measures, vaccination, minimizing inappropriate antibiotic use and prioritizing drug and vaccine development.
Next week, the United Nations General Assembly is expected to convene a High-Level Meeting for world leaders to "collectively address the looming threat AMR poses to global health" and food security. It will be the second time a hearing has centered on AMR this session.