PHOENIX — When it comes to population, economic, and political statistics; where was Arizona in 2023 and where do experts expect it to be by the end of the year?
Foremost, Arizona is expected to continue growing. The mid-year estimates made by the US Census Bureau put the state’s population at 7.5 million. The population is expected to rise to 7.6 million in the coming year. Most of those people will be coming to the Valley from elsewhere. Maricopa and Pinal counties, which encompass the Phoenix metro according to the Census Bureau, will pick up nearly all the population gains made this year, rising from 5.13 million to 5.24 million.
The average annual temperature for Phoenix was 88.9 degrees Fahrenheit in 2023. It was the fifth warmest annual average for Phoenix since record-keeping began. The hottest annual average temperature occurred in 1989 with 89.9 degrees Fahrenheit. This was followed by 2020, 2017, and 2014.
Alongside the warmer temperatures and rising population figures is Arizona’s growing economy. Economists at Comerica estimate the state’s GDP will grow from $366 billion to $372 billion in 2024. That's an annualized increase of 1.6%. Inflation for the Phoenix Metro ended 2023 at 2.9%, substantially lower than the double-digit inflation from the middle of 2022. Economic forecasters expect inflation to decline to 2.4% nationwide by the end of this year.
Valley real estate, a major part of the economy is also expected to see rising prices, but at a slower pace. The most recent Zillow estimate for median home values in the Phoenix Metro was $448,000. Zillow expects the median will rise 1.1% to $452,000 by November of 2024. As prices are expected to rise, mortgage rates are expected to fall at the same time. The National Association of Realtors estimates the average mortgage rate in Phoenix last quarter at 7.8%. They forecast by the third quarter of 2024 rates will fall to 6.5%, which makes a rise in home values a bit more digestible to home buyers.
This year Arizonans will cast their vote in a presidential election. The state will be front and center yet again as it is already considered a “toss-up” state by election prognosticators. One major difference between the last presidential election and today is the rise of unaffiliated voters. As of the most recent data, Independents and unaffiliated voters lead both Republicans and Democrats in voter registration. While this itself will not dramatically change the state’s political landscape, it does mean that voters not tied to one of the major political parties will have a larger voice in November.
