With just over 100 days until the November general election, Democrats find themselves in unprecedented territory: finding a new presidential nominee.
Polling matchups between former President Trump and potential democratic rivals are sparse but began increasing after the June 27 debate, in which Biden’s perceived poor performance against Trump was the catalyst for an increasing chorus of elected democrats calling for his withdrawal from the race.
Decision Desk does have recent polling averages for four potential challengers and Trump leads all of them. Vice President Kamala Harris has the tightest margin with Trump with him leading by 2.7 points.
The widest gap belongs to Trump and Buttigieg at nearly a seven-point average lead.
Polling averages are one reason why it looks more and more by the house that Harris will be the nominee.
Trump maintains an advantage at the individual polling level as well. He leads Harris in four of the past five polls released after July 15.
In the same time frame, former President Trump led President Biden by four to six points. With a new starting block being set, Harris is in about the same position as Biden, if not slightly better.
As Arizona pollster Paul Bentz points out, all polling prior to President Biden’s withdrawal on Sunday is completely hypothetical, even for the person taking the survey.
“Until yesterday, all that polling was speculative. Anything we saw that was a different candidate or potential candidate? All to the level of would you support a Republican or Democrat.” Bentz said. “It’s more a generic democratic test or an anti-Trump test.”
One way to compare Trump and Harris with less speculation is using favorability ratings.
In the case of both candidates, they are rated more unfavorably by about the same share of voters with little deviation over the past year.
The percentage of voters that rate Donald Trump favorably is slightly higher than Kamala Harris. The difference comes down to the overall number of voters that rate Trump compared to Harris.
According to the averages, about 98%, nearly every American voter, has an opinion on Donald Trump. For Harris, that number is closer to 93%. A small difference, but in close elections, democrats are betting it could make all the difference.
The final problem Democrats hope to tackle with a Harris nomination is the enthusiasm gap.
A recent poll of Arizona by Insider Advantage shows large sub-populations that tend to support Trump at higher levels are also more enthusiastic about voting in the election. Democrats hope a new nominee may help close this gap.
