A recently released report by the Arizona Department of Water Resources finds that a region of the Valley that is expected to grow by tremendous amounts in the next several decades may not have enough water to support that growth.
The study was done on the Lower Hassayampa sub-basin, a groundwater management area situated in the far West Valley. Much of the basin makes up unincorporated Maricopa County, but large swaths include the City of Buckeye.
For planning purposes, the Water Resource department models out water supply and demand for a 100-year period.
Based on their models, demand for water is expected to exceed what can be pumped from wells by 4.4 million acre-feet of water by 2116.
Today approximately 123,000 acre-feet of water per year are already assigned.
An additional 173,000 acres per year of water is planned or certificates for wells have been issued. Their report says the sub-basin has a recharge rate of about 100,000 acre-feet per year.
The model estimates that of the 357 existing wells, 100 will have pumping capacity reduced to zero by the 100-year mark, 94 of the planned 458 wells will also be reduced to zero.
Not all areas of the sub-basin are experiencing the problem at an equal level.
Hydrologists found that most unmet demand will occur around Interstate 10 and State Route 85 junction.
Today, this area is sparsely populated but it is contained within the Buckeye City Limits and data from the Maricopa
Association of Governments shows that it has been zoned for both low- and high-density residential areas.
Buckeye is one of the fastest-growing areas in the state. The city is expected to add 360,000 residents, more than triple its current population, by 2055.
