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Has the surge in deaths subsided? ABC15 asks the Maricopa County medical examiner

Dr. Jeff Johnston Maricopa County Medical Examiner
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PHOENIX — Perhaps no one has followed the human toll of Arizona's heat wave as closely as Dr. Jeff Johnston.

As the Maricopa County chief medical examiner, he oversees one of the busiest offices of its kind in the country.

The office typically sees an increase in death-investigation cases in July. But this year, there was a sudden surge around July 10.

“That happened very, very quickly,” he said.

The surge continued as Arizona broke multiple heat records. Within weeks, the office was over standard capacity.

By the end of July, the medical examiner would see a record 842 death investigation cases, a 10% increase over the same month last year. The county bought 10 refrigerated trailers two weeks ago with the capacity to accommodate up to 180 bodies, if needed.

As of August 9, there have been 59 heat-associated deaths in Maricopa County. There are still 345 deaths under investigation.

"Thankfully, we've not had to use them,” Johnston said in an interview this week with ABC15. “They’re still on standby.”

As the chief medical examiner for a decade, Johnston sees a pattern to when people are more vulnerable to the summer heat: Temperatures that are above 110º on consecutive days. The consistent, high heat doesn’t give people a chance for recovery.

An increase in people experiencing homelessness also plays a role, he said. Preliminary data shows that about 60% of the potential heat-related deaths still under investigation seem to be people experiencing homelessness, he said.

Maricopa County has seen an increase in heat-associated deaths every year since 2014. Last year, 425 people died, a 25% increase over the previous year. Johnston said this year’s July surge will likely translate into a record number of heat-associated deaths in a single month.

“I think that's a pretty fair assumption at this point,” he said.

It’s too early to say how many people died of heat-associated deaths in July because a death investigation can take about six weeks on average.

But these aren’t just numbers.

Maricopa County shares its findings in an annual report, which can be used by policymakers, health officials, community leaders and others to try to help prevent deaths.

"Really the root of what we're doing is understanding why people die in our community,” Johnston said. “So we can share with partners that can effect change.”

The medical examiner is still seeing a surge in death-investigation cases, though less than in July.

“This past week has been an improvement in things,” he said. “We're gonna keep our fingers crossed.”

Email ABC15 Investigator Anne Ryman at anne.ryman@abc15.com, call her at 602-685-6345, or connect on Twitter and  Facebook.