In just eight days the polls will be open for Arizonans that decide to not vote early.
It’s a big week for political pollsters. All are looking to get their final election polls out before November 8, and all trying to be the most accurate.
Local polling firm OH Predictive is no different, poll numbers released Monday show in most cases almost all candidates are running neck and neck.
At the top of the ballot, incumbent US Senator Democrat Mark Kelly holds a slim lead over his Republican opponent Blake Masters; 48% to 46%.
Kelly has led in most polls, but Masters has quickly closed the gap in polling over the past few weeks.
The same poll shows former news anchor Republican Kari Lake with a two-point advantage over Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs; 49% to 47%.
Hobbs led Lake in most polls over the summer, but polling has shown a surge of support for Lake since September and frequently surpasses Hobbs in recent polling.
The margins are wider in the Secretary of State race. Democrat and former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes is polling six points ahead of Republican legislator Mark Finchem, 48% to 42%. Polling in this race has not been consistent with both men leading depending on the poll.
The race for Attorney General is similar, but narrower. Democrat Kris Mayes is showing a slight lead against Republican Abe Hamadeh wit OHPI showing 45% for Mayes and 42% for Hamadeh. Polling here is also less consistent as both candidates have led in recent polling.
“Based on this expected voter behavior, you can expect the first numbers posted on Election Night to favor Democrats, however, as the day-of votes get counted you’ll see Republicans quickly catching up,” said OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble.
One poll could be accurate, but it is always better to look at an aggregation of all recent polling along with fundamentals like partisan environment and seat incumbency. Sites like FiveThirtyEight specialize in this and give odds on who is ahead.
In the US Senate race, FiveThirtyEight forecasts that Mark Kelly is the odds-on favorite.
His chances of beating Masters are at 69 of 100.
The odds are almost flipped in the gubernatorial contest. FiveThirtyEight says Lake is the favorite, winning simulated elections 61 out of 100 times.
It’s important to remember those odds are not much better than a coin flip. In a purple state like Arizona, expect a wild ride on election night.
