Federal contests are always at the top of the ballot. When Arizonans go to vote, the first contest they will see is for United State Senator. Republican Blake Masters is looking to unseat Democrat Mark Kelly in a race that the numbers say Kelly is currently favored to win, but it has gotten much closer.
At least one poll a week is released asking Arizonans about this race. Instead of focusing on the most recent, a better way to look at the state of the race is the polling average. FiveThirtyEight.com has Mark Kelly ahead of Blake Masters by six points, 49.1% to 43%. Decision Desk, another site that does election forecasting, shows the average at a similar level.
“Kelly is probably ahead, but the margin is up for debate," said FiveThirtyEight polling expert Geoffrey Skelley. “Obviously, if the margin is pretty narrow that could be a sign that Masters can win this thing.”
Skelley told ABC15 that election experts prefer to look at polling averages since individual polls are trying to reflect who will vote in November, but since they cannot talk to everyone, their sample will inevitably be off.
“You have to acknowledge that there’s a chance that it’s off,” Skelley said. “And in some cases, it could be off substantially. But if you take all the polls together, you’re increasing the likelihood that you’re getting close.”
With the US Senate race up for grabs, Arizonans have a growing number of issues that pollsters say are frequenting the top of the list. In a recent CNN/SSRS survey of likely voters in Arizona, the top issues were the economy and inflation for 39% of respondents, a wide margin. The next highest issue, abortion, is at 18% — a newcomer to the top. Before Roe v. Wade was overturned, abortion was typically polled near the bottom of issue concerns in the single digits.
“What I think it has done is Republicans have gotten a policy win at a time when Democrats have control of everything, and that is sort of fouled up the usual sort of midterm math,” Skelley said.
The “midterm math” Geoffrey Skelly refers to is the common election outcome in which the party that does not hold the presidency tends to do better in off-year elections. Currently, the midterm math favors Republicans taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November.
Ultimately, the best way for political candidates to get their message out to voters is through ad spending. So far Kelly is dominating Masters here. Kelly and aligned groups have spent about $34 million. That's almost twice as much as Masters and groups aligned with his campaign. This is a major reason why FiveThirtyEight has Kelly leading Masters in the polling average, and why Kelly has topped Masters in all 16 polls released here in Arizona.
