PHOENIX — Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs and the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management held a press conference on Monday morning to discuss the outlook for the upcoming fire season.
"The probability of ignition is way up," State Fire Management Officer John Truett said.
In fact, wildfire season has seemingly already begun. Arizona has seen early activity this year, including the Brady and Horton fires. ABC15 was told that despite the rain earlier this month, officials say it wasn’t enough to offset the ongoing drought. Much of the brush across the Valley is still dangerously dry.
"This is one of the most critical years that we've seen in our careers," Officer Truett said. "You don't need an extreme event right now to have fire carry."
Watch the full press conference in the video player below:
How dry is it?
Experts with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported in early March that total winter precipitation in the U.S. was just shy of 6 inches — or nearly an inch below average. The period of December through the end of February — what forecasters consider the meteorological winter — ranked the third driest on record.
Flagstaff, nestled in the mountains south of the Grand Canyon, has long been on the list of quick escapes for desert dwellers looking to build snowmen or go sledding. The northern Arizona city finished the winter period with a 50-inch snowfall deficit. A major storm hit the area in mid-March, forcing the closure of Interstate 40 and stranding motorists for hours. It wasn't enough to erase the shortfall.
What does that mean for wildfire conditions?
Arizona, New Mexico and parts the Midwest already have had their share this spring of red flag warnings — when low humidity couples with windy, warm weather to heighten wildfire risks. Those threats materialized in mid-March in Oklahoma, where fires destroyed hundreds of homes. Crews in New Jersey and the Carolinas also battled flames amid dry conditions.
In the West, land managers and firefighting forces are concerned that without adequate snowpack in many mountain ranges, there's less moisture to keep fires from ballooning into fast-moving conflagrations.
April 1 typically marks the peak of the snowpack, but forecasters say many areas are already melting out. Strong spring winds that deposit dust onto the snowpack help to speed up the process.
Wildfire risk in Arizona communities
Utilizing May 2024 data from the USDA, ABC15 created an interactive map that shows the overall wildfire risk to communities across Arizona.
Search your address and see the wildfire risk analysis in the interactive map below. Having trouble viewing the map? Click here.
The Four Corners region — where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah meet — is among those on the radar for high fire potential given the unfavorable conditions.
Fire officials have already been hard at work preparing for when they are called to action.
In Arizona, the Phoenix Fire Department has warned the mayor and city councilors about increasing risks. They have a plan for surging department resources to help contain fires before they escalate, particularly in areas where urban development intersects with wildland environments.
In neighboring Scottsdale, Mayor Lisa Borowsky recently floated the idea of creating a volunteer brigade to bolster wildfire prevention, pointing to invasive species and overgrown vegetation within the McDowell Sonoran Preserve that could pose risks. A fire department crew has been clearing and trimming brush along roadways.
Officials are urging the public to clear brush around their properties, be aware of dangers around the state, and use caution while recreating.
Preparing to fight fires
Last week, local, state, and federal fire agencies spent two days training together to make sure they are prepared to fight wildfires.
Arizona Public Service (APS) is also rolling out new AI-powered cameras designed to detect smoke in high-risk areas across the state.
State leaders broke ground earlier this year on a new dispatch center for the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management in north Phoenix. Department officials say the new 7,000-square-foot facility will be almost three times larger than the current facility and incorporate state-of-the-art technology for wildfire tracking and monitoring.
