PHOENIX — More school districts in Arizona are looking at the future and trying to figure out what to do as enrollment in public school districts declines.
The Cave Creek Unified School District is considering possibly closing two schools. The Kyrene Elementary School District is forming a committee to look at “long-range” planning as enrollment declines.
Paradise Valley Unified closed three schools at the end of the last school year, and the Roosevelt School District board recently voted to close five schools as well.
“There's many more school districts in decline than there are those experiencing increases,” said Rick Brammer, a principal manager with Applied Economics.
Brammer and his company work with school districts, looking at demographics and projections to help school districts plan for their future.
Enrollment for public school districts in more established cities like Mesa, where growth can no longer happen, is seeing declines. However, school districts in areas that have room to grow, like Queen Creek or Buckeye, are seeing increases.
“It's inevitable,” said Scott Thompson, an assistant superintendent with Mesa Public Schools. “The only districts that are growing are the areas where there's new construction.”
There are a few factors as to why enrollment is continuing to decline.
Brammer said there is more school choice, from charter to private and universal Empowerment Scholarship Accounts. There is also a lack of affordable housing in some areas and, at the same time, the birth rate has been declining.
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“Maricopa County is a very fast-growing place. However, the share of the population, you know under 18, has continued to shrink,” Brammer said.
Some districts, like Mesa, are trying to find other alternatives before closing schools. Thompson said the district started to remove portables this summer. The portables were put in decades ago as the district grew rapidly. At one point, the district had around 75,000 enrollment. Now, they’re around 55,000.
He estimates there were around 350 portables in the school district.
“I want to believe that the folks that were making those decisions kind of knew that the growth wouldn't be there forever,” Thompson said.
So far this school year, the district removed 33 portables, which is the equivalent of 64 classrooms and more than 63,000 square feet. Thompson said that’s the size of an elementary school. The district hopes to remove a total of 69 this entire school year.
The idea of closing schools isn’t out of the question for the district, it’s just a matter of when, and Thompson said they’re years from that at this point. But Brammer said some school districts are having to face that reality sooner than later.
“We're going to do everything we can first,” Thompson said.
Inside the Numbers: The declining number of younger Arizonans
According to the newly released American Community Survey estimates, even as Arizona’s population continues to increase, the number of younger Arizonans is falling. The state population rose an estimated 321,000 people between 2018 and 2023 to 7.3 million. At the same time, there were 1.8 million Arizonans under 20 — a decline of 36,000 from 2018.
The Valley’s two largest cities, Phoenix and Mesa, both recorded declining populations of young Arizonans: 32,000 fewer in Phoenix and almost 4,000 fewer in Mesa. Other medium-sized cities to see a decline include Scottsdale, Tempe, and Casa Grande.
At the other end of the spectrum, several cities and towns in the outskirts continued to see growing populations of young people. The most growth occurred in Buckeye, followed by Queen Creek, Gilbert, the city of Maricopa, and Goodyear.
