PHOENIX — Democrats have typically dominated the Hispanic vote, but a new poll from USA Today and Suffolk University shows that trend might no longer be a guarantee.
According to the poll, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is now favored among Latino voters, 39% compared to 34% for President Joe Biden. While the political season has just begun, it’s a stark contrast to 2020, where Hispanic voters turned out for Biden 2 to 1.
“I don’t think there’s the party loyalty that we once saw,“ Joseph Garcia, executive director at Chicanos Pro La Causa told ABC15. “There has been an erosion when it comes to Democratic support among Latino voters, and I think part of that is the messaging hasn’t been there.”
Earning the Hispanic vote is especially important in a state like Arizona, where the Latino community makes up a large percentage of the population and could be the difference in who wins the battle crucial battleground state.
“The problem for President Biden is this demographic, if they don’t come home that’s like voting for Trump even if they’re voting for a third-party candidate because he needs those base voters,” Doug Cole, Chief Operating Officer at HighGround.
Arturo Vargas, CEO of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund, believes Latinos have been taken for granted.
“If you assume that Latinos are always going to be in the Democratic Party's fold, then you're assuming that you don't need to go out and engage those Latino voters to vote for Democrats,” Arturo told ABC15. “When Latino voters feel that they're not being engaged in the process they look for other options, just like anybody else would do.”
But not everyone feels that way.
Miguel Medrano, former executive director for the Maricopa County Democratic Party believes Democrats are in a strong position with the Hispanic community heading into the election year but acknowledges that making sure it stays that way is always a priority.
“It's something that we discussed with Latinos within the Democratic community, Latinos in leadership within the party,” Medrano said. “This is something that we are incredibly concerned about. But I do believe we are in a better place than we've ever been.”
The bottom line is that Hispanic voters are more engaged and looking for which candidates' messaging will resonate when it comes time to head to the polls.
“They're paying very close attention to what that means for their communities and their pocketbooks,” Francisco Pedraza, Arizona State University School of Politics and Global Studies professor said. “So, the jury, in that sense, is not entirely decided. There may be some Arizona voters who have already committed, and they may be champions for one cause or one candidate long in advance of the election day. But there's a whole lot of folks who are in the process of collecting information. And that means that there's an opportunity Democratic Party and the GOP party.”
