While the nation just celebrated Independence Day it may be an “Independents Year” for registered voters in Arizona.
We are in a new club, a small grouping of states where independents and those not registered to a recognized political party are the largest bloc of potential voters.
Using updated registration figures from Maricopa and Pima counties combined with the previous quarter’s numbers for the state’s thirteen rural counties, there are an estimated 1.45 million Arizonans not registered with a party. This just surpasses the state’s 1.44 million registered Republicans. The lead is only a few thousand.
Throughout Arizona’s entire history as a state, Democrats were the leading party for over 60 years. Republicans took over during the 1984 election cycle, but independents were a growing bloc even then. They did manage to lead the state in registrations between May 2014 and May 2016 when Republicans took back the lead.
This change is primarily due to a surge in Independents in the valley.
Since the last election, 40,000 Valley residents registered as Independent. During that time Republicans added 12,000 and Democrats 2,500. Meaning Independents added more than double of both major parties combined.
According to the county recorder’s office, in June alone more than half of new registrants are “Party Not Designated,” the official term used for Independents in Arizona. Meanwhile, Republicans were 23% of newly registered and Democrats 18%.
The trend of independent registration could matter a great deal more this next election with U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema poised to launch a campaign as an Independent.
While official registration numbers are not out until July, a spokesperson for the Secretary of State’s office confirmed Independents are now a plurality of Arizona voters.
