For the first time since the Great Recession, Arizona lawmakers head into a legislative session with cash in the bank - lots of it.
The state's rainy day fund is maxed out at $460 million and by the time the fiscal year begins on July 1 there is expected to be $555 million in general fund surplus. Only about $218 million is ongoing revenue, so one-time spending is likely. The state's budget tops $9 billion.
That means added pressure on Republican Gov. Doug Ducey to restore cuts to all areas of government that saw massive belt-tightening since 2009 when the Legislature convenes and he gives his State of the State address Monday.
But Ducey and the GOP-led Legislature are unlikely to deliver all that is asked. K-12 Schools will see a boost if voters approve in May an initiative boosting payouts from the state's permanent land trust, but education backers will want more from the general fund.
Universities that have also seen cuts, including a $99 million cut in the current budget that was backed by Ducey, want that funding restored. And Ducey himself wants "tens of millions" in new money for a state police border strike force. Local sheriff's oppose the plan, saying they can better use the money, so a fight is likely.
Counties and cities that saw cuts to state funding, especially for roads, are expected to be pushing for the cuts to be restored.
But Ducey promised yearly tax cuts in his 2014 campaign, and vowed to push for more in 2016. Some in his own party oppose more tax cuts on tops of years of revenue cuts that were supposed to boost the economy but ended up hurting schools and other spending priorities, so he may face a battle. He also may push for state agency consolidation and workforce cuts, after campaigning on shrinking government.
Social issues are also expected to prompt battles, with one anti-abortion proposal already announced and others likely. And the Supreme Court's legalization of gay marriage earlier this year might reboot efforts by conservatives to revive a vetoed 2014 bill giving businesses the right to refuse service for religious reasons. GOP social conservatives dominated the Legislature, and Ducey is opposed to abortion and will probably back the anti-abortion measure.
Some of the top issues lawmakers are likely to face when the convene Monday include:
- Education, university funding: Schools will see a $330 per child boost if voters approve a $3.5 billion, 10-year plan to tap the state land trust in May. But education advocates want more, and lawmakers are particularly interested in restoring career and technical education cuts made in the current budget. Universities want to see a return of the $99 million cut they took in the current budget.
- Pension overhaul: The state's pension plan for police and firefighters is in dire financial straits, and a plan to overhaul the system for new hires is close to done.
- Elections: An overhaul of the current election law code is planned by the Secretary of State's office, and several other changes have already been proposed, including one that would prevent groups from collecting early ballots from voters and delivering them to polling places.
- Border security: Ducey has announced a plan to boost border security by deploying a task force of state troopers. He wants to spend "tens of millions" of dollars on the plan, but some border sheriffs oppose it.
- Abortion: Republicans who control the Legislature pass anti-abortion laws nearly every year, and more are expected this year. Already, top GOP leaders are proposing a plan to cut off funding the Planned Parenthood for non-abortion services. Previous efforts have been blocked by federal courts.
- Counties want to see highway funding the state used to provide fully restored. The state has been using much of the money to fund the highway patrol.
- Guns, federal pushback: Conservatives in the Legislature work to ease gun laws each year, and more are expected this session. They also hope to adopt legislation that blocks federal rules, although most have little effect.
