LAS VEGAS — The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are facing off in Las Vegas on Feb. 11 for Super Bowl LVIII.
Here's an analysis of each team's strengths and why they could take home the trophy:
Why will the Chiefs win the Super Bowl? Their vast experience
The Kansas City Chiefs have been here before.
They've won here before.
In fact, they've beaten the San Francisco 49ers here before.
Of all the reasons why the Chiefs will raise their third Lombardi Trophy in four trips to the Super Bowl over the past five years — and there are many, beginning with the brilliance of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the wizardry of coach Andy Reid, the league's No. 2-ranked defense and a sizeable chip they carry on their collective shoulders — experience might just top the list.
When they kick off against the 49ers on Sunday for a rematch of their championship win four years ago in Miami, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce will start his 22nd postseason game. Mahomes will start his 18th and defensive tackle Chris Jones his 16h, the trio of franchise cornerstones holding down the top three spots in Chiefs history.
It's not just playoff experience, though. The Chiefs have Super Bowl experience. And there is a difference. The lights are brighter, the pressure greater and the distractions more plentiful, just as the rewards are that much more satisfying.
Eight of the Chiefs' offensive starters were on the team that beat Philadelphia for the championship last year in Arizona. Eight of their defensive starters, too. Harrison Butker is back to kick and Tommy Townsend is back to punt.
In fact, if you look at the active 53-man roster following conference championship weekend, the Chiefs had 66 combined Super Bowl appearances; the 49ers had 16. And the Kansas City contingent had 48 rings among them while the 49ers had just four.
Heck, the Chiefs are so experienced that safety Mike Edwards, left tackle Donovan Smith, wide receiver Justin Watson and backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert played against them for Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl in the 2020 season.
Wide receiver Richie James did likewise for — you guessed it — the 49ers when they lost to Kansas City in the 2019 season.
By starting his fourth Super Bowl, Mahomes will tie for the third most in NFL history for a quarterback behind Tom Brady and John Elway. The others with four include Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Roger Staubach, Peyton Manning and Jim Kelly.
All of them are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame except Brady, by the way, and he will no doubt be there soon.
“I think the biggest way I've changed,” Mahomes said this week, reflecting on his first Super Bowl appearance four years ago, “is kind of knowing what to expect. I've grown obviously as a quarterback and as a leader and as a person, but being able to have a game plan for what the Super Bowl week entails — and prepare myself to not play the Super Bowl before the Super Bowl game — is something that I'm hoping that I can use to my advantage.”
By comparison, many of the most important members of the 49ers have no Super Bowl experience at all.
Brock Purdy was just a sophomore at Iowa State, slinging passes around the Big 12 with no idea that he would someday become “Mr. Irrelevant” in the NFL draft. Running back Christian McCaffrey was still on a losing team in Carolina that had just fired its head coach. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk had just wrapped up his college career at Arizona State.
The Chiefs also have far more experience on the sideline.
Andy Reid is coaching in his fifth Super Bowl, moving into a tie with Tom Landry for third in NFL history and trailing only Bill Belichick and Don Shula. His third win would tie him with Bill Walsh and Joe Gibbs behind only Belichick and Chuck Noll.
His offensive coordinator, Matt Nagy, has experience as a head coach having led the Chicago Bears to the playoffs. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo not only has head coaching experience but also championship experience with multiple franchises, winning a ring as Tom Coughlin's coordinator with the New York Giants following the 2007 season.
Put them side by side, the 49ers might well have the superior roster — aside from quarterback, of course. There is a reason why they have been favored in every game they have played this season, and why the Chiefs were underdogs when they visited the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round of the playoffs and the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC championship game.
But experience doesn't show up in the box score. And the Chiefs have a whole lot of it.
Why will the 49ers win the Super Bowl? Improved QB play
The San Francisco 49ers had Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on the ropes four years ago when the teams last met in the Super Bowl.
The Niners held a 10-point lead and had possession with less than 10 minutes to play before everything fell apart on both offense and defense, leading to a 31-20 loss that still stings today.
The difference when the teams meet in the rematch on Sunday will be this time the 49ers will have a quarterback capable of making a big play down the stretch that will deny Mahomes a third Super Bowl title.
San Francisco's defense held Mahomes to 10 points for the first 50-plus minutes in Super Bowl 54 before giving up three late TDs to lose the game. This year's unit is not as strong as it was in 2019, but it will be the offense that will carry the Niners to their first championship in 29 seasons.
Brock Purdy has gone from “Mr. Irrelevant” as the final pick in the 2022 draft to the franchise quarterback who has elevated coach Kyle Shanahan's offense in less than two years. He led the NFL in passer rating (113) and yards per attempt (9.6) with his ability to throw deep and scramble adding new wrinkles to the offense.
Purdy also has a far better group of playmakers than the one that surrounded Jimmy Garoppolo four years ago.
Running back Christian McCaffrey won the AP Offensive Player of the Year award after leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage (2,023) and tying for the lead in touchdowns (21) in the regular season.
Brandon Aiyuk has been one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL with 1,342 yards on 105 targets this season to open up the passing game.
Deebo Samuel has become an even bigger dual threat as a runner and receiver than he was as a rookie in 2019 and tight end George Kittle remains a key part of both the passing and running game.
San Francisco was the sixth team to have four players with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage in the same season.
That was all lacking four years ago when the offense needed to make only one or two big plays in the fourth quarter to keep the ball away from Mahomes and win the game.
Instead, San Francisco gained one first down on the first two drives of the fourth quarter, giving Mahomes the opportunity to take the lead. Garoppolo then missed an open Emmanuel Sanders on a potential go-ahead deep shot in the closing minutes and threw a late interception to seal the loss.
After playing most of his brief career as a front-runner, Purdy has shown the ability to come from behind in the playoffs if the Niners needed that. He led a game-winning touchdown drive in the fourth quarter of a divisional round win over Green Bay and then helped San Francisco rally from 17 points down to beat Detroit in the NFC title game.
He's also a far better deep passer than Garoppolo with his 62.3 percent completion rate on deep throws leading all passers this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
Beating Mahomes will require more than just offense and even though the Niners have taken a step back in recent weeks defensively, their strengths match up well with Kansas City.
San Francisco is stout defending runs between the tackles, where the Chiefs have had their most success with Isiah Pacheco.
The Niners are also one of the best teams defending the middle of the field thanks to linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw so they should be positioned to at least limit Travis Kelce's production.
Throw in one of the biggest mismatches with edge rusher Nick Bosa against tackles Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith and San Francisco should have enough to win a close game.
